vega

[hembo36]

by the way..oswalt has been so good for so long..very few have been as good over the last decade as he has...not even your boy peavy..peavy may be better going forward but until last year i wouldnt go so far as to call him a star..he was good of course but there were others.....

in my opinion ,the only one who has been as equally consistent as oswalt, is johan santana, over the last 10 years...roy is still one of the kings of the mound

[vega51]

No, if you see Peavy's stats you could had PREDICTED that Peavy was going to be better than oswalt from 2005 on.Actually, you could see from day one Peavy is really a true NUMBER 1 PITCHER.

Do you want to bet Peavy has a better year than Oswalt this year? In 2005 Peavy had a whip lower than what he had last year, imagine that. In 2006 he struggled with ERA, but whip was 1.23 which still very very good. So, last 3 year, in 2 of those he has had whip's UNDER 1.10 (which is INCREDIBLE).

Believe me, Peavy is better and at the end of his career, he will have better numbers, he does have much better stuff.

[hembo36]

i dont disagree with that assessment at all...Peavy is great..im just saying its a recent development..oswalt has been good for 10 years

[vega51]

PEAVY has been good since day one. Peavy started to pitch in the majors at age 22!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Second year, first year as a regular pitcher in the majors, in 194.2 innings, only 173 hits allowed. Peavy has allowed more hits than innings pitched only once in his career, his ROOKIE year where he only started 17 games. Oswalt, in last 3 years is allowing same amount of hits or more hits per inning, and i bet you this year is the same.

He started to pitch in the majors i believe 1 year older than Peavy.


Seeing Peavy's numbers, K's and hits per inning it was easy to predict how good he was going to be, and if you see his STUFF, then there was no doubt he was going to be where he is right now, second best pitcher in baseball.

[hembo36]

no he hasnt..he has had several years with an era of over 4.00 Thats bad..Ive said it a million times, strikeouts, wins or any of that other sh*t matters not...I cant understand why people just dont get it.. ERA is absolutely every single thing for a starter.. 4 means a guy gives up 4 runs in a 9 inning game(avg) WHIp is also important but not as much...However both stats are probably going to correlate anyways..low era generally has a low WHIp etc..... ERA is misleading for relivers but not for starters..... 4.00 is not good..especially for a NL pitcher...This is absolute fact ... 3.50 and below are good, and below 3.00 is unbelievably good

example

player 1: has 200 innings, a record of 20-1, 250k's and an era of 4.20

player 2: has 200 innings a record of 1-20 , 25 k's and an era of 2.10

player 2 is twice the pitcher
player 2 is better

player 1 probably plays for a Boston type team and player 2 plays probably plays for the royals

[vega51]

Well, i give you a friendly advice, use whip to predict future, not ERA's, that why i've been right with predictions about pitchers, example, Arroyo and Peavy.

Also, about Oswalt, i've been saying for 3 years now that i am worried about Oswalt, looking at his whip, hits per inning especially.


Tell you the truth, like i said 3 years ago, i take peavy over oswalt anyday, actually, I DID with my strat team, I took Peavy in the second round when I had the chance on taking Oswalt.

[jamesa46]

Apr 6, 2008 11:05:22 GMT -5 vega51 said:

Well, i give you a friendly advice, use whip to predict future, not ERA's, that why i've been right with predictions about pitchers, example, Arroyo and Peavy.

Also, about Oswalt, i've been saying for 3 years now that i am worried about Oswalt, looking at his whip, hits per inning especially.


Tell you the truth, like i said 3 years ago, i take peavy over oswalt anyday, actually, I DID with my strat team, I took Peavy in the second round when I had the chance on taking Oswalt.

vega-
I agree with you wholeheartedly. I've also watched Oswalts declining stats closely and unfortunately, I believe Oswalt's best years are already behind him. He is in a stage of decline.

[vega51]

james, you are completely RIGHT.

[hembo36]

well whatever works for you guys..Its not right ,but thats cool

[mikeinsa]

Before everyone buries Roy it should be brought up that he has always started slowly. Roy also bears down when runners are on. If you used whips strictly on Roy to predict his performance you would be wrong.

Over the past 3 years his pitching style has evolved. He is a smart guy and understands that given his small stature he will not be able to pitch the heaters for much longer and still get guys out. He is becoming more of a pitcher and less of a thrower.

Having said that Peavy is a better pitcher and so long as he does not get hurt he will have better stats than Roy.

[vega51]

We don't need a number 1 starter that STARTS slowly because this team does not have the team to be able to come from behind the second half of the year, we need a number 1 starter that pitches the way Felix Hernandez, Tim Hudson, Smoltz, ect are doing.

Right now, of the 5 starters our WORSE pitcher is oswalt.

[mikeinsa]

That is true. Having said that though it is not Oswalts fault that little Timmy left the cupboard bare. If we were 5-2 instead of 2-5 we would not be having this conversation.

Roy needs to step up. He knows that and anyone who knows anything about baseball knows that.

If he has 5 starts and they look as bad as the first two then I will concede that you have a point. If he turns it around and pitches well then you are crying about the sky falling because of a couple of bad starts.

[vega51]

well, when he starts pitching good, i'll be the first one 'to say it, but i'n the past 2 years i've seen way too many bad games from this guy.

[sadoug]

sad as it is....our best started so far has been Bache

If that continues, we will be in for a long season indeed. Hembo...I agree, that in the end, ERA is the only stat that matters to a pitcher, but I do agree with Vega that if you look at the whip you can predict best what a pitcher will do in the future...

[hembo36]

Doug, its a silly argument to be having because someone with a low era is probably going to have a low WHIP as well...using that logic after 2004, roy o was heading downhill...it doesnt matter, though, that he came back the next year with a 1.20 whip a lower era and 20 wins...its silly because the 2 stats are in direct correlation with each other....you cant have a guy with a 2.25 era and a whip of 1.40 or some sh*t like that...

ERA is the only telling stat of a major league starter..any expert anywhere will tell you this

so using that logic..peavy in 06, had a 1.23 whip and era of 4.09 so one could assume his future wouldnt be so bright, because as you say, whip determines what a pitcher will do in the future...Its silly logic